# metodología "de tendencia"

#### David Carter

##### Member
Hola,

Otra frase que encontré hoy en un artículo en el sitio latino.msn.com was
"con metodología "de tendencia" " La oración completo fue:

"El sondeo nacional entre 1.217 con posibles votantes, con metodología
"de tendencia"-el primero en una serie que continuará" hasta el 1 de noviembre-
fue realizado del lunes al miércoles y tiene un margen de error de 2,9 por ciento"

Puede ayudarme con esta frase.

Gracias, David

• #### belén

##### Senior Member
me parece que se refiere al sistema de encuestas/sondeos, no estoy muy familiarizada con los distintos métodos, pero entiendo que se refiere a que en ese te caso el sondeo se realiza para reconocer la tendencia de voto (podrían por ejemplo hacer un sondeo para reconocer la intención de voto)
Espero haberte aclarado algo!

#### LadyBlakeney

##### Senior Member
David, this is a statistics term, so perhaps my explanation in English won't be very thorough or professional:

The "tendency analysis" is a method to interpretate statistic data, for example the date collected through a survey. This method is used to compare various series of data which are expressed in different measure units, in different scales. The series of data are usually time series, for instance the percentage of vote intention in each month of the campaigne.

In order to homogenize the different series, you transform each one as follows:

Vote intention: January 1,235.4 (I invented all the figures)
February 1,938.2
March 1,750.0
...

You take the first figure as the "basis" (we call it "basis number" in Spanish) and consider it as 100 (100%). Then you transform the following figures into percentages by comparison with the first one, like this:

Jan: 100
Feb: (1,938.2*100)/1,235.4= 157
Mar: (1,750.0*100)/1,235.4= 142

This means that the vote intention in February was 57% higher than in January, and that in March it was a 42% higher than in January.

Finally, if you are comparing this series with others expressing different concepts (e. g. personal income of the voters, which is expressed in pounds whereas the vote intention is expressed in persons), you use the transformed series:

Vote intention: Jan 100
Feb 157

Personal income: Jan 100
Feb 125

You can say that the vote intention has risen in a greater amuount that the voters' personal income from January to February.

Of course, I didn't choose a sensible comparison in the rush of the moment, but when you manage really long time series and complicated statistic equations this analysis comes in useful.

Hopefully I didn't make it messier.

#### cuchuflete

##### Senior Member
David Carter said:
"El sondeo nacional entre 1.217 con posibles votantes, con metodologi'a
"de tendencia"-el primero en una serie que continuara" hasta el 1 de noviembre-
fue realizado del lunes al miercoles y tiene un margen de error de 2,9 por ciento"

Puede ayudarme con esta frase.

Gracias, David

Good morning David,

Notwithstanding all the good help offered by her Ladyship, I believe this is simply a not very good translation from the common term "tracking poll", in which the same sample is contacted, rather than drawing a new random sample from the same statistical universe.

Best regards,
Cuchu

#### cuchuflete

##### Senior Member
LadyBlakeney said:
really long time series and complicated statistic equations this analysis comes in useful.

Hopefully I didn't make it messier.

No you didn't make it even a little bit messy. That was a fine exposition, better than the one I remember from my "Stats" professor.

Just a minor note: time series and complicated statistical equations this analysis comes in handy

saludos,
Cuchu

#### LadyBlakeney

##### Senior Member
Thanks for the corrections, Cuchu. You know you help me a lot!

#### cuchuflete

##### Senior Member
David Carter said:
"El sondeo nacional entre 1.217 con posibles votantes, con metodologi'a
"de tendencia"-el primero en una serie que continuara" hasta el 1 de noviembre-
fue realizado del lunes al miercoles y tiene un margen de error de 2,9 por ciento"

More on the same topic: Here is the original article in English:

* *|* *|* *|*

Bush and Kerry in Dead Heat Ahead of Debate
Fri Oct 8, 2004 07:01 AM ET

ST. LOUIS (Reuters) - President Bush and Democratic challenger John Kerry are in a statistical dead heat in the White House race ahead of their second face-to-face debate, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Friday.

The national poll of 1,216 likely voters was taken Tuesday through Thursday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. The rolling poll will continue each day through Nov. 1.

A tracking poll combines the results of three consecutive nights of polling, then drops the first night's results each time a new night is added. It allows pollsters to record shifts in voter sentiment as they happen.

Hope this helps,
C

#### David Carter

##### Member
Muchas gracias a todas

Hace mucho tiempo desde curse' estadis'ticas.

David

#### cuchuflete

##### Senior Member
David Carter said:
Muchas gracias a todas

Hace mucho tiempo desde curse' estadis'ticas.

David

In my day we called the course "How to lie with numbers" and of course
Mr. W.S. Churchill told us about "Lies....Damned lies......and Statistics!"

#### funnydeal

##### Senior Member
David Carter said:
Muchas gracias a todos

Hace mucho tiempo desde que curse estadísticas.
David

Dave

Some little corrections

Please correct me