Reili, et al:
The question “what will happen to Cuba once Fidel dies? and the several answers that implicitly conclude an either gradual, virtual, up to a radical change in the political composition of the country are predicated on several assumptions, which may or may not be false; but which at this time fall under the category of “Unk-Unks (unknown-unknowns). First of all, it accepts at face value that there is widespread dissatisfaction of Cubans within Cuba of the present political arrangement. At the same time it fails to acknowledge that Cuba has been, since the early sixties, subject to severe economic sanctions and pressures from the US and several of its allies, motivated or pushed by right wing exile Cubans centered in Miami. One premise not recognized is that that situation alone has permitted the Cuban society to harden, cope with adversity, and maintain internal coherence and stability in front of that adversity. Fidel dies, and those within the system will keep the system running as if he were alive, because a change in the system will require a radical change in how the US perceives Cuba.
Here enters the second assumption. The death of Fidel will generate a massive outpouring of emotion in Miami, where exile Cubans, whipped into a frenzy by right wing exile leadership will dance in the streets and convince themselves it is just a matter of taking a boat back across the Florida Keys and retake or re-start where they left off in ‘59. They will forget that those that stayed will see this exile leadership as the cause of the embargo and every malady and suffering suffered by those on the island for over 45 years. Any effort to return, by those in exile will be met with the strongest opposition, if not outright violence.
Any change in the government will be very gradual, if at all, and based on reciprocal changes from the US government; as someone else observed, Mao died in China and the Chinese Communist Party is still in power and in absolute control of that country. In other words, Bush, Jr. and Jeb, plus the neo-cons will have to ease up and ignore that very powerful and financially influential right wing Cuban exile block before any real change occurs in Cuba. And before that happens we’ll have to see Iraqis waving American flags and singing the National Anthem down the streets of Baghdad…
Noel Acevedo